21:26  KeT4yn:
NEW YORK (Dow Jones)--The U.S. trade deficit widened a bit more than expected in December, and for all of 2005, it widened by $108.2 billion, or 17.5%, to $725.76 billion. That amounts to 5.8% of gross domestic product.

These are hefty numbers, and two conclusions can be drawn from the evolution of the trade deficit last year:

-The U.S. is likely to continue to experience a deficit - and probably a widening deficit - for the foreseeable future. One modestly positive aspect is that the degree of deterioration in the past year was less than in 2004, when the deficit widened by $122.8 billion, or 24.8%.

-For all of 2005, U.S. exports grew by 10.9%, nearly as fast as the 12.9% increase in imports. This represents a narrowing in the growth rates compared to 2004, when exports grew by 12.6% and imports outpaced them at a 16.6% growth rate. The rapid pace of increase in U.S. imports reflects the robustness of U.S. growth fueled by consumer demand, but the nearly as rapid pace of demand for U.S. exports last year shows that our trading partners' economies are also experiencing strong growth, and the U.S. economy is benefitting from that.

That last point underscores two important aspects of the deficit in 2006: U.S. trade is likely to remain in deficit, but the major economies of the rest of the world are likely to be willing to accept this is one of the costs of their own growth.

21:28  KeT4yn:
The trade deficit in December was about $1 billion larger than the $64.7 billion expected in the Dow Jones Newswires-CNBC survey, and the November deficit was revised to show a $500 million greater shortfall. Friday's report also contained the annual revisions to the deficits for the rest of the year, so, the comparisons are more complicated.

The net effects resulted in downward revisions to the quarterly deficits for the first three quarters of 2005, which makes the quarterly comparison harder to ascertain. However, the previous data showed that the October-November average deficit was $5.3 billion more than the third quarter average, while the revised data show that the fourth quarter average monthly deficit was also $5.3 billion more than the third quarter average.

Moreover, while the levels were different, it's clear that the Commerce Department had assumed that the December goods deficit would be $1 billion larger than in November, but in fact, the December merchandise deficit was $2 billion more than in November.

All in all, it looks like the trade deficit will have just a very modest effect on the gross domestic product estimate when it is reported on Feb. 28: probably, no more than shaving 0.1 percentage point off the growth rate. Most economists still expect that the net effect of revisions to other inputs to the GDP - inventories, construction spending and capital spending - will add a net 0.4 percentage point, resulting in a 1.5% growth rate, up from the earlier estimate of 1.1%.

21:29  KeT4yn:
Two special - and likely temporary - developments in the December report related to trade in aircraft and oil are worth noting:

Aircraft exports had spurted in October and November after the end of the strike at Boeing Co. (BA). In December, total exports of civilian aircraft, engines and parts declined by $1.186 billion, while imports of aircraft, engines and parts increased by $362 million. The net effect on the deficit was a $824 million widening in the deficit.

Aircraft export orders have continued strong at Boeing, even though the 26 foreign orders out of January's total of 39 aren't nearly as strong as the 163 out of 204 received in December. Last month, there were 17 foreign deliveries compared with 11 in December, meaning the aircraft surplus may well rise in the short term and is bound to remain positive as orders are filled over a two-year production run.

21:31  KeT4yn:
Meanwhile, oil imports decreased by $1.3 billion as a result of a 1.1% decline in the number of barrels imported and a decline in the landed price of crude oil to $49.76 from $52.16. Unfortunately, it appears that oil prices rose in January, so, the oil deficit will widen on that basis alone even if the number of barrels of imported oil holds constant.

In terms of bilateral trade, U.S. trade with China remains the most lopsided. Although our trade - exports and imports together - with China only represents 11.1% of total trade, behind Canada (19.4%), Mexico (11.3%), and the euro area (14.3%), the trade deficit of exports to China compared with imports from China is far and away the largest, amounting to 26.3% of the total U.S. deficit, eclipsing the 11.9% accounted for by the euro-area or the 10.2% accounted for by Canada.

Look for 2006 to be another year of deepening U.S. trade deficits....and world economic growth.

22:19  KeT4yn:
WASHINGTON (AFX) - The U.S. federal surplus widened to $21 billion in January from $8.6 billion a year ago, the Treasury Department said Friday. The government typically runs a surplus in January when corporations and individuals make quarterly tax payments. The January surplus was $3 billion less than the $24 billion surplus expected by the Congressional Budget Office in its monthly budget outlook. The difference came mostly on the outlay side. Receipts rose 13.7% year-over-year to $230 billion. It's a record for receipts in the month of January. Outlays rose 7.9% year-over-year to $209 billion, also a record for the month of January.

23:14  KeT4yn:
Tanigaki: Japan Hasn't Overcome Deflation Overall -2-
"I think various (price) data suggest there is some improvement, but overall, deflation hasn't been overcome, and there is still a need for the Bank of Japan and government to cooperate," Tanigaki said.

Thursday, BOJ Governor Toshihiko Fukui indicated that the BOJ is moving closer to ending its super-easy policy as consumer prices rise.

Although the BOJ's policy board decided to keep policy unchanged at its meeting Thursday, Fukui said at future policy board meetings consumer prices will play a greater role in determining the appropriate timing to end the so-called quantitative easing policy.

"Considering that on-year changes in the core CPI will be clearly positive from January's data onward, our view on (these) data will grow more important from our next meeting on," he said.

Japanese government officials, however, have urged the central bank to go slow on lifting its easy policy, and Tanigaki's remarks Friday suggested he remains unconvinced that the BOJ should change policy in the near future.

The BOJ has said that it will end its quantitative easing when on-year changes in Japan's core consumer price index are above zero, there is no sign that the CPI will resume its downward trend and there are no other factors that warrant keeping the policy in place. Since March 2001, the central bank has held short-term interest rates near zero and flooded the financial system with excess cash.

The core CPI rose 0.1% in December from a year earlier following a 0.1% increase in November, which was the first two-month run of increases in almost eight years.

Turning to the yen's foreign exchange rate, Tanigaki said that while it has moved rapidly recently from time to time, overall it is reflecting economic fundamentals.

But he added that Japan's MOF will continue to watch the foreign exchange market carefully.

23:21  KeT4yn:
JAPAN: Japan Oct-Dec GDP data is due next week, 17th, and a JiJi Press
story reports that a survey of 37 think-tanks conducted by the Economic
Planning Association forecasts growth for the period at a 4.01%
annualized rate, up sharply from the prior quarter. Those same
forecasters see GDP slowing to a 1.63% annualized pace in the Jan-Mar
quarter.

23:23  KeT4yn:
TOKYO (Nikkei)--With Japan's Health Ministry rejecting Nippon Telegraph and Telephone Corp.'s (9432.TO) request to cut payouts in its defined-benefit pension program, companies are bound to howl that the government is placing excessive restrictions on corporate pensions, which are private programs, The Nihon Keizai Shimbun reported in its Saturday morning edition.

Currently, firms must satisfy strict conditions in order to cut the benefits of retired workers, such as winning the agreement of two-thirds of those enrolled as well as offering an option in which those who desire it can receive a lump-sum payment equivalent to benefits before the decrease.

In addition, requests to cut benefits can be approved only when the firm's "business conditions have deteriorated severely and there is no other choice," according to the criteria. This standard is being criticized for lacking specificity and giving the ministry full discretion.

The Japan Business Federation, the powerful business lobby known as Nippon Keidanren, has been asking the ministry to abolish the entire approval process, arguing that there is no need to ask the reason for lowering benefits if labor, management and the benefit recipients all agree on a cut.

By making it harder to reduce the benefits of retired workers, more firms will likely choose to slash pension benefits for existing workers, leading to an even bigger gap in benefits between active and retired employees.

The health ministry regulates corporate pensions because sponsoring companies used to pay some public pension benefits on behalf of the government. However, current defined-benefit corporate pension schemes have become fully private pensions because firms have stopped handling public pension benefits.

23:29  KeT4yn:
TOKYO (Nikkei)--Many manufacturers' labor unions in Japan are no longer simply demanding uniform pay hikes but instead will employ various tactics in negotiating with management this spring, The Nihon Keizai Shimbun reported in its Saturday morning edition.

Because management is usually hesitant to offer uniform wage increases, unions are "drastically revising" their demands to win pay raises, according to an official of an automaker's union.

Some unions are taking a traditional approach, requesting that their base monthly pay be increased. The union at Toyota Motor Corp. (7203.TO), which has a seniority-based automatic pay raise system, is one of them.

But with businesses increasingly linking pay to performance, such unions are becoming the minority.

This trend is particularly prominent in the electrical machinery industry, where firms, including Hitachi Ltd. (6501.TO), use pay tables that specify performance-linked wages for each group of workers possessing certain skills and qualifications. The unions at these manufacturers, which also include Toshiba Corp. (6502.TO) and Mitsubishi Electric Corp. (6503.TO), are demanding that these tables be updated this spring.

Nissan Motor Co. (7201.TO) has an even stricter performance-based pay system, determining wages solely on points employees accrue on the job. The automaker's union will demand additional points for each staffer.

Taking Fuji Heavy Industries Ltd.'s (7270.TO) slumping earnings into consideration, its union will narrow the focus of its demands this year. It will ask for raises only for section chiefs, who perform the key task of directly overseeing factory workers. Fuji Heavy is the maker of Subaru-brand vehicles.

Unions at Nippon Steel Corp. (5401.TO) and JFE Steel Corp. are also limiting proposed pay hikes to middle-aged and older workers. With baby boomers set to retire over the next several years, the unions believe boosting veteran workers' morale is critical for enhancing

23:33  KeT4yn:
US Data Week Ahead: Jan Retail Sales, Production And PPI


NEW YORK (Dow Jones)--One week of sparse indicator releases is once again due to be followed by a week stuffed with releases including January readings for retail sales, industrial production and the producer price index.


Jan Retail Sales Seen Up 1.0%, Non-Auto Sales Up 0.6%

Retail sales appear to have recorded a strong gain in January, boosted again by solid auto sales and a healthy increase in non-auto sales.

Economists look for overall retail sales to have risen by 1.0% in January following a 0.7% increase in the prior month. At the same time, non-auto sales are estimated to have recorded a healthy 0.6% increase in January following a more anemic 0.2% gain in the prior month.

The Commerce Department is due to release the retail sales report at 8:30 a.m. EST (1330 GMT) on Tuesday.

"Retail sales rose strongly in January, largely because of a surge in motor vehicle sales" said Steve Wood, who heads up Insight Economics in Danville, Calif. "However, even core retail sales were solid, boosted by a rebound in chain store sales and higher gasoline prices. Despite rising interest rates and high energy costs the consumer remains remarkably resilient."

23:33  KeT4yn: Jan Industrial Production Seen Up 0.3%
Industrial production is believed to have made a further modest advance in January reflecting the increase in aggregate hours worked in manufacturing.
Economists look for a moderate 0.3% increase in January following a 0.6% gain in the prior month, which should push the capacity utilization rate up to 80.8% from 80.7% in December.

The Federal Reserve is due to release its industrial production report for January at 9:15 a.m. EST (1415 GMT) on Wednesday.

"We expect industrial production to rise 0.3%," said Ian Morris, chief economist at HSBC Securities in New York. "Warm weather may depress utilities output following a 2.8% increase in December. However, we look for solid manufacturing output at 0.5% led by a rebound in auto production and further gains in chemicals and computers. Mining output should also rise as oil and gas extraction continues to recover from (Hurricane) Katrina. Capacity utilization may rise to 80.8% from 80.7%."

23:34  KeT4yn: Jan Producer Price Index Seen Up 0.3%, Core Up 0.2%

The producer price index for January is expected to have recorded a moderate increase, both overall and for the nonfood, non-energy core.

Economists look for a 0.3% overall PPI increase in January following a large energy-led 0.9% increase in the prior month, while the core is expected to have increased only 0.2% after a 0.1% rise in December.

The Labor Department is due to release the PPI report for January at 8:30 a.m. EST (1330 GMT) on Friday.

23:34  KeT4yn: Other Data

-The Commerce Department is due to report on business inventories for December at 10:00 a.m. EST (1500 GMT) on Tuesday. Economists look for a 0.5% increase following a similar 0.5% increase in November.

-The Federal Reserve Bank of New York's Empire State manufacturing index for February is due to be released at at 8:30 a.m. EST (1330 GMT) on Wednesday. Economists' forecasts center on a reading of 18.0 compared with 20.1 in January.

-Economists look for jobless claims to increase by 5,000 to 282,000 in the week ended Feb. 11. The Labor Department is due to release the jobless claims data at 8:30 a.m. EST (1330 GMT) on Thursday.

-The Commerce Department is due to release its housing start report for January at 8:30 a.m. EST (1330 GMT) on Thursday. Economists' forecasts focus on a modest 0.4% increase to an annual rate of 2,000,000 from 1,993,000 in December.

-Economists look for a 1.1% increase in the import price index for January following a 0.2% decline in the prior month. The Labor Department is due to release the import price index for January at 8:30 a.m. EST (1330 GMT) on Thursday.

-The Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia is due to release its February manufacturing index at noon EST (1700 GMT) on Thursday. Economists look for the index to increase to a reading of 10.0 from 3.3 in January.

-The University of Michigan is due to release its preliminary reading on consumer sentiment in February to subscribers only at around 9:45 a.m. (1445 GMT) on Friday. Economists forecast a reading of 90.6 compared to the final reading for January of 91.2.

00:02  KeT4yn:
Eurodollar Futures Fall, Eye On Bernanke

The most active 2006/2007 Eurodollar futures contracts finished the day 2 to 5 BP lower, as bearish trend offset oversold conditions and short-covering. Active put buying and record options open interest show that traders are thinking that new Fed chair Bernanke will hint at more rate hikes when he speaks to Congress next week. Nearby Jun closed at 94.91, down 2 BP, fully priced for a 4.75% 2Q rate. Jun also factors in about a 76% chance the Fed will tighten to 5% in the 2Q, up from about a 68% chance priced into Thursday's close. (HLP)

00:03  KeT4yn: Dow Jones-AIG Commodity Index 164.285 dn 3.446

Open High Low Last Net Change % Change
DJ AIG Commodity Index 166.674 167.361 164.170 164.285 -3.446 -2.1



CRB Spot Index Close 353.55 -4.49, high 358.05, low 353.40

04:11  чертова дюжина: ознакомился.

18:09  BAR: Кетчуп Почитал, спасибо, хотя ни луя не понял:)

20:49  Mak: ..thanxxxx..........)

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