21:39  KeT4yn:
замечательно, значит эти штаты воздержутся в ближайшее время от рефинансирования, уменьшив тем самым доходность бондов(30-летнии бумаги в район 112.5) и нацелив доу джонс в сторону 12000, ну и евра типа оле-оле -)))

21:53  KeT4yn: WASHINGTON (Dow Jones)--The U.S. budget deficit poses a risk to future living standards and thus lawmakers should take "concrete steps" to improve the nation's finances, Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke said in written responses to members of the Senate Banking Committee released Tuesday.

"I am quite concerned about the intermediate to long-term federal budget outlook," Bernanke wrote to Sen. Robert Menendez, D-N.J., in response to written questions following Bernanke's appearance before the Banking Committee in February.

The letter was dated March 9.

"By holding down the growth of national saving and real capital accumulation, the prospective increase in the federal budget deficit will place at risk future living standards of our country," Bernanke stated, noting the "severe pressure" demographic changes will place on future entitlement spending.

Yet as was the case during his semiannual monetary policy testimony last month, Bernanke declined to comment on specific policies such as whether Congress should adopt pay-as-you-go spending rules.

In a response to a query about the 30-year Treasury bond, Bernanke stated, "I do support the Treasury's decision to resume issuance of thirty-year bonds."

"Long-term interest rates are currently quite low, apparently reflecting in part strong demand among investors for long-term issues," Bernanke explained.

21:54  KeT4yn: Eurodlr Futures See 80% Odds For 5% 2Q Rate

22:08  KeT4yn: Laura Bush Says US Is Ready For A Woman President

WASHINGTON (AP)--Laura Bush said Tuesday the U.S. is ready to have a woman president - preferably a Republican.

She offered her opinion while touring an exhibit at the National Museum of Women in the Arts with Marta Sahagun, the first lady of Mexico, and Eliane Karp, the first lady of Peru. The exhibit features archaeological finds from Mexico and Peru that show that, long before Europeans arrived, women served as warriors, governors, artists, poets and priestesses.

"They really show what a heritage we have in our hemisphere, a really very, very organized and intellectual society," Mrs. Bush said.

During an exchange with reporters, Mrs. Bush was asked if the U.S. was prepared to have a woman in the Oval Office.

"Sure, absolutely," she replied. "I'm voting for the Republican woman."

Mrs. Bush previously has expressed support for Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice for president, but Rice has said repeatedly she's not going to run.

23:30  KeT4yn: NEW YORK (Dow Jones)--Through the ups and downs of the headline retail sales data, the details of the government's monthly report have consistently shown one thing: consumer spending in the first quarter so far has been robust.

This bodes well for the overall economy that is poised to pop above "trend growth" in the first three months of the year after a lackluster expansion in the fourth quarter.

At first glance, the Commerce Department's report on February retail sales was awash in negatives. Retail sales fell off by 1.3% in February after an upward-revised 2.9% increase in January and excluding auto sales (down 4.6% in February after being up 4.2% in the prior month), all other sales slipped by 0.4% in February after soaring by 2.6% in January.

Despite the monthly swings, after sorting through all the details, consumer spending still looks strong. It's always frustrating to sift through data to arrive at such a conclusion. After all, if you take away all the components that declined, whatever is left has to show strength.

However, there are good reasons to analyze the details.

Non-auto sales have to be adjusted because in compiling the consumption spending estimate the Commerce Department excludes spending in the building supply and hardware sector on the principal that these are mixed consumer-business investment purchases.

The sales that remain can be used as a proxy for consumer spending and that concept showed underlying strength in the first two months of 2006. Although the non-auto, non-building supply retail sales fell off by 0.7% in February there was a 2.0% increase in January and a 0.2% increase in December. The annualized growth rate for the three months ending in February was 7.6% compared to a much more anemic 0.1% annual rate for the three months ended in November.

Economists conclude that these data do point to much stronger growth in real consumer spending in the current quarter. For instance, Dave Greenlaw, senior economist at Morgan Stanley in New York estimated that real consumption spending is tracking at a 4.8% annual rate (compared to a 1.2% rate in the fourth quarter), in line with his estimate of a 4.5% GDP growth rate, up from 1.6% last quarter.

Jim O'Sullivan, senior economist at UBS Investment Research in Stamford, Conn. had been expecting a 1.4% decline in total retail sales. He concluded that real consumer spending is growing at a 4.5% rate in the first quarter for GDP growth at an annualized 4.4%.


The Drag On GDP Growth From Trade

Other data reported Tuesday underscored why GDP growth in the current quarter is expected to lag consumer spending growth.

The report on the current account for the fourth quarter showed a widening in the deficit to $224.9 billion from a downward revised $185.4 billion. This brought the total deficit to a record 7.0% of GDP for the quarter.

Part of the widening, however, was due to a near tripling in the transfers deficit to $25.1 billion from $8.9 billion. Transfers are not included in GDP, but the deterioration in the remainder of the current account was still severe and underscored two big negatives.

-First, the goods and services deficit underwent a pronounced widening that likely persisted in the current quarter as strong consumer demand sucked in goods produced abroad substituting for domestically produced goods.

-At the same time, the income account - which measures the inflow of income earned by U.S. assets abroad, mainly interest and repatriated profits, against the outflow of interest payments and foreign profits earned in the U.S. - swung from a small surplus ($4.9 billion) in the third quarter to a small deficit ($2.4 billion) last quarter.

The long and short of it is that the current account deficit highlights the drag that very strong domestic demand exerts on U.S. growth when it spills over to spur foreign rather than domestic production.

04:10  KeT4yn:
WARREN BUFFETT, the "Oracle of Omaha," issued his annual letter to shareholders recently, an event overshadowed last week by the AT&T-BellSouth combination.

I always look forward to Mr. Buffett's folksy missives, especially his investment insights, strategies and predictions. Over the years, investors could have done very well by piggy-backing on Mr. Buffett's moves.

But this year there was a slightly autumnal air about Mr. Buffett's letter. Although he assured readers he feels "terrific," he discussed his eventual retirement and indicated he has a successor in mind. And while Mr. Buffett's company, Berkshire Hathaway, saw a modest increase in 2005, I couldn't help wondering if Mr. Buffett has lost some of his legendary touch.

Last year I expressed reservations about his big bet on a falling dollar, noting that it conflicted with his own advice to avoid following the herd. And, sure enough, that strategy proved costly for shareholders. Berkshire Hathaway recorded a $955 million loss on its foreign-currency positions. Fortunately for those of us who don't trade currency futures, investing in foreign markets nonetheless paid off. The effect of the strong dollar was more than offset last year by big rallies in most foreign markets. This year Mr. Buffett seems to have come around to my view.

While he still argues that the huge U.S. foreign trade deficit means trouble for the dollar eventually, he reports that he closed out some of his currency positions and makes the case instead for owning foreign equities.

I share that view, although I'm concerned it's become the conventional wisdom Mr. Buffett teaches us to be wary of. One of these years, foreign equities are going to underperform U.S. markets. The only question is when.

On the stock-picking front, Mr. Buffett lamented last year that there were few companies that met his stringent, value-oriented criteria. Those concerns notwithstanding, we learn this year that Mr. Buffett took large positio

04:12  KeT4yn: Those concerns notwithstanding, we learn this year that Mr. Buffett took large positions in Wal-Mart Stores ($944 million) and Anheuser-Busch ($2.1 billion).

Both companies seem to have qualities that have long attracted Mr. Buffett, namely strong brand names and dominant market shares. I, too, experienced the allure of Wal-Mart last year as its stock dropped into what seemed to be clear value territory. Unlike Mr. Buffett, I threw in the towel when the Wal-Mart call options I bought expired worthless and took the tax loss.

In addition to high gasoline costs affecting its target customers and a host of potential labor and regulatory issues, Wal-Mart seems unable to translate its growing size into higher economies of scale and bigger profit margins. It has yet to prove its ability to dominate a foreign market. Still, I'm neutral on the stock at these levels, and might follow Mr. Buffett's lead if the price drops much further or if gas prices continue to decline.

Anheuser-Busch is more puzzling. Though Anheuser-Busch retains a dominant market position, it seems to be fending off a dizzying array of craft- and micro-brews, not to mention nonbeer alternatives, and sales slipped last year. Nor has Anheuser shown it can dominate any markets other than beer. I respect Anheuser's marketing prowess and strong competitive position, but I can't get excited about the stock.

Indeed, it's hard to imagine a big surge in the stocks of companies like Wal-Mart and Anheuser, but perhaps Mr. Buffett is content with modest, 5% to 6% gains.

In any event, that seems to be all Mr. Buffett is hoping for. In his letter, he goes out of his way to damp expectations. He notes that during the 20th century, from 1899 to 1999, the Dow Jones Industrial Average increased at a compound annual rate of 5.3%, and that so far in the 21st century, the industrial average has essentially gone nowhere. The implication is that we shouldn't expect much more. I agree we shouldn't be greedy,

10:12  news_robot: Господа, в разделе Фондовый рынок появился новый комментарий