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Mizuho Bank. Торговые рекомендации по основным валютным парам

Валютный рынок

FIG.1Евро/доллар. Добавить практически нечего, так как пара продолжает консолидироваться в узком диапазоне, сформированном в марте. Моментум на нуле, а открытый интерес равен лишь малой доле от максимумов прошлого года - все это формирует утомительные условия торговли. Сегодня ждите консолидацию в диапазоне 1.5800 - 1.5900.

Стратегия. Открывайте небольшие позиции на покупку на уровне 1.5855, добавляйте позиции до уровня 1.5810; стоп ниже 1.5750. Покрывайте длинные позиции в области между 1.5950 и 1.6020.

Доллар/иена. Массивная свеча "spike low/молот" на недельном графике подчеркивает тот факт, что рынок находится в поиске направления. Мы прогнозируем неторопливый процесс формирования вершины сегодня в первой половине дня недалеко от 107.50, после чего возможно снижение к зоне 106.00. Лишь недельное закрытие ниже 105.50 сигнализирует о том, что промежуточная вершина сформирована.

Стратегия. Продавайте на 106.77; стоп выше 107.30. Краткосрочная цель в области 105.50/105.00.

Фунт/доллар. Пара образовала свечу "spike high" на недельном графике выше 2.0000 в области тонкого облака Ишимоку. Если фунт/доллару удастся стабилизироваться выше 1.9900 сегодня утром, то вполне вероятно укрепление к 2.0000 и выше. Только когда фунт начнет уверенно торговаться выше 2.0100, риск очередного ослабления снизится.

Стратегия. Открывайте позиции на покупку на уровне 1.9925; стоп ниже 1.9800. Краткосрочная цель на 2.0000, следующая на 2.0100.

Николь Эллиот, лондонское подразделение банка Источник: ProFinance.Ru - Новости рынка Форекс

21.07.08 09:39  |  Фунт резко ослаб в Азии после пессимистичных комментариев Банка Англии 21.07.08 11:33  |  Иена укрепляется против основных валют в начале торгов в Европе
Комментарии (всего 16)
 
10:38  AlexGrig: 2?
10:38  Spas: а что же так скудно...
10:38  AlexGrig: Ну как обычно.
10:42  krokodil52: Fant 10:35 !, Виктор, приветствую, все до амеров ушел, нех тут ....
10:47  mamont01: Всем доброго дня и с началом трудовых будней
10:51  SovRaz: Доброго всем утра, дня, вечера, ночи(нужное подчеркнуть).
AlexGrig 08:52 А какие мысли по евроенке? Меня с одной стороны утешает(в сторону юга), что исторические хаи по ней, перепишут их и назад, а с другой стороны - скока еще енка протянет на этих уровнях?... непонятно... Если переключатель "керри" не переведут в положение ON по полной, то всеже думаю светит больше юг.
10:54  Радость: Форекс торговые стратегии, прогнозы и сигналы forex: EURUSD, GBPUSD, EURUSD. Недельный график. Цена закрытием преодолела краткосрочную нисходящую трендовую линию (B – C), и сопротивление 1.5816. Так как в течение двух недель подряд цены закрытия оказываются за пределами нисходящей trendline, выше сопротивления 1.5816, то прорыв считается истинным. До тех пор пока цены находятся выше линии B – C покупки предпочтительны. По недельному графику покупки можно пробовать в районе 1.5660-1.5680, если неделя закроется под 1.5706 (предыдущий краткосрочный минимум), то следует подумать о ликвидации позиции. Дневной график. Пара закрытием нарушила верхнюю границу диапазона 1.5816. На данный момент наблюдается обратная реакция к пробитому уровню. Европейская валюта торгуется в районе нижней границы краткосрочного канала и носит консолидационный характер. По техническому анализу в районе трендовой линии от 1.5810-1.5820 следует покупать, ликвидировать сделку, если цена закрытием преодолеет трендовую линию и закрепится под 1.5819. Продажи можно пробовать, если цена закрытием преодолеет трендовую линию и закрепится под 1.5819, стоп-лосс над 1.5880. GBPUSD. Недельный график. Фунт стерлингов закрытием нарушил границу нисходящего канала, и рост курса продолжился. Вполне возможно, что формируется модель перелома тенденции "удавшийся размах" (nonfailure swing) в основании рынка. Сигналы к покупке возникают в точке В1 или в точке В2. Цена закрытием нарушила сопротивление 1.9949, давая сигнал консервативным трейдерам для входа в рынок в точке В2. По техническому анализу пара находится на идеальном уровне для входа в Лонг, но меня настораживает очень длинная тень сверху и закрытие в середине торгового диапазона прошлой недели. По итогам недели сформирована свеча с очень длинной верхней и нижней тенью и маленьким телом, ее называют «высокой волной» (high-wave). Японские аналитики говорят о свечах с длинными тенями, что они «сбились с пути». Елена Черная, ELAN Investment Solutions
11:08  Tomm: 212.52 еще шорт
11:09  Набор букв: Радость как бизнес, идет в гору?
11:14  AlexGrig: Tomm 11:08 гууд. я пока евройен стопом в профите защищу: 169,45 (+5п.)
11:16  крупье: Time is now for intervention to prop dollar: James Saft
http://www.reuters. com/article/reutersComService4/idUSL1679503020080718
11:25  AlexGrig: Sterling is broadly softer today on dovish comments from BoE Blanchflower that UK is entering a recession that may last more than a year. Blanchflower said that BoE should act right now and he'd like to see interest rates 'well below' their current level. Sterling is additional pressured after Rightmove house prices index showed deeper drop by -1.8% mom, -2.0% yoy in Jul. Though, firstly, Blanchflower is already a known dove so his comments are not much of a surprise. Secondly, Sterling's near term rise against dollar and yen are still intact technically speaking. Thirdly, it's a big week in the UK with BoE minutes, retail sales and Q2 GDP featured. So the current retreat in Sterling will likely be mild for the moment.
Aussie, on the other hand, shrugs off softer than expected PPI report and is the better performer today. Q2 PPI softened from 1.9% qoq to 1.0% qoq and from 4.8% yoy to 4.7% yoy. Markets expected a 5.3% yoy jump in PPI. Analysts are quick to point out the weak correlation between Australia's PPI and CPI data and are still awaiting a strong CPI report to be released on Wednesday.
Economic calendar is rather light today with Swiss combined PPI to be released in European session and US Leading indicators to be featured in US session.

GBP/JPY Daily Outlook
Daily Pivots: (S1) 212.32; (P) 213.08; (R1) 214.58; More


http://www.actionforex. com/action-insight/market-overview/daily-report%3a-sterling-broadly-softer-after-banchflower%27s-comments-2008072153460/
11:27  AlexGrig: UBS:

USD: Risk sentiment seeks consolidation GBP: Rightmove house prices disappoint EUR: Ifo key release for the week AUD, NZD: Australian PPI, NZ confidence ease IDR, INR: Trail stops to entry MYR: Inflation to jump, eyes on BNM COP: Pressured but fundamentals supportive Technical FX: EURJPY bulls eye 169.67

G10

USD

The dollar was flat overnight, trading in a 1.5828-1.5874 and in a 106.72-106.99 range against the JPY. Equities in Asia are mostly trading in positive territory, though we remain cautious on the outlook for risk appetite this week as sentiment is likely to be driven by non-data events. Oil prices have climbed back to just under $130/bbl after heavy declines last week and concerns over inflation will continue to linger. Over the weekend Minneapolis Fed President Gary Stern said in an interview that the Fed cannot wait until financial and housing markets stabilise before raising interest rates. This position marks a departure from recent comments by Fed Chairman Bernanke, who conceded that the downside risks which weigh on the economy will continue to take precedent in policy up ahead. Divisions within the FOMC centring on inflation will not come as a surprise to the market, but expectations that a pre-emptive hike will be on the cards are also weak. CPI for June hit 5.0% but core inflation has remained fairly steady for the first half of the year. Compared to other central banks, Fed warnings on second-round effects have been relatively absent, and the strong element of uncertainty exigent in financial markets, especially over the future of GSEs, means rate hikes will be highly disruptive at this stage. We expect the market to focus on earnings reports of several major blue-chips, especially those within the banking sector, and a continuation of last week's solid results will help the dollar maintain some momentum. On the data front, key releases include the Fed's Beige Book, existing and new home sales, durable goods orders for June and the University of Michigan confidence index for July. We continue to target EURUSD at 1.60 in 1m but expect a retreat to 1.53 in 3m as retreating headline inflation begins to contain the need for aggressive policy elsewhere in G10. We are also short EURGBP as a trade recommendation targeting 0.74. Ahead today, there are no events scheduled in the US of note other than a continuation of the earnings season.

GBP

In data released overnight, Rightmove House Price indices showed another 1.8%m/m decline in prices, pushing the y/y figure to 2%, below last month's 0.1% reading. This is the first y/y drop since the Rightmove survey began in August 2002, and the report also warned that unsold homes per agency branch have hit a record high. Weak housing reports have become customary for UK data releases and the market's response has become increasingly muted. Nevertheless, other demand-side elements of the economy will struggle to recover while the housing correction continues, and the Bank of England will find it difficult to target inflation as a result. Overnight, BoE's Blanchflower - the MPC's most dovish member-called for a rate cut as he expected 3-4 quarters of a recession. We believe such fears are overdone, and MPC's Sir John Gieve acknowledged on Friday that the monetary accommodation achieved through 3 rate cuts since Q4 2007 has been offset by ongoing problems in credit markets. Given recent events across the banking sector, such stress is likely to continue and the majority of the BoE would not find any compelling argument for a cut if the benefits are ambiguous at best. In other data, net public debt rose to GBP9.2 bn, above expectations of GBP 7.4bn. In addition, annualised M4 money supply hit 11.5%, well above expectations of 9.7%. Despite Gieve's comments, we believe market pricing of GB-negative events is complete, and further deterioration in Eurozone data will put pressure on stretched long EURGBP positions. We are short the cross as a trade recommendation and target a return to 0.74.

EUR

ECB President Trichet surprisingly chose to focus on downside risks in comments published on Friday. He warned that a significant market correction remains likely and the ECB is not pre-committing to anything. However, the ECB's base case for growth is still a trough in Q2 and Q3 and further increases in oil and commodity prices are a concern. On Thursday newswires reported that the EU parliament has drafted a call for the ECB's inflation objective to be shifted upward from the "close to, but below 2% requirement". Any such change would require a change of the Maastricht criteria and is unlikely to happen anytime soon. Current talk signals politician's unease with rising interest rates. The Ifo index will be released on Thursday and our economists are looking for the Business Climate Index to break below 100 for the first time since November 2005. The market is looking for a 100.1 result, but a significant surprise to the downside may force the ECB to review its outlook. Overnight, a story in the Financial Times reported that French President Nicolas Sarkozy is seeking more political accountability from the ECB, which would involve regular publication of Governing Council minutes and encourage political leaders in Europe to have a more open debate with the bank. The current French EU presidency is expected to be more vocal on the ECB's role but we doubt any substantial challenges to the ECB's independence will surface. There are no Eurozone data events today.

AUD, NZD

Australian PPI for Q2 rose by 1% q/q, well below expectations for a rise of 1.6% q/q. While core producer prices rose by 0.7% q/q, down from 1.6% in Q1, a breakdown of the data reveals accelerating inflation pressure from upstream producer prices. Still the lower headline level will reduce expectations for Q2 CPI due Wednesday. As of surveys conducted last week, the market expects core Q2 CPI to rise by 1.1% q/q. Meanwhile, in NZ the ONE News Colmar Brunton Poll pointed to a further deterioration in confidence in July. The RBNZ meet on Thursday and consensus is calling for a rate cut in September. New Zealand is likely to be the first central bank other than the Fed to begin making steep cuts to policy rates, to the likely detriment of the NZD. The markets are pricing in 14.5bp of rate cuts at this week's meeting - i.e. a better than even chance of a 25bp rate cut. We think NZD will remain weak and maintain our 3-month target for AUDNZD at 1.27.

Emerging FX

IDR, INR

We recommended going long an equal-weighted basket of IDR and INR on June 11, in a tactical trade based on our view that the market could react positively to more aggressive actions from both central banks in addressing the threat of domestic inflation. The position is currently 1.5% in the money including carry. We would recommend trailing the stops to entry, while maintaining the position to capitalise on the latest bout of optimism in Asian central banks given yet more indication of aggressive policy tightening. Asian central banks' renewed focus on inflation over growth has instilled some positive reactions from the market in recent sessions. After selling some of the currencies in Asia where the central banks were seen to be behind the curve, the market has taken out some of the long USD positions against these currencies as central banks tightened more aggressively. We expect the RBI to hike rates again at the July 29 policy meeting after hiking 75 bps in June. In the FX market, the RBI started to sell some reserves to prevent the currency from weakening from the end of May. The selling continued in June, with US$3.5 bln sold according to our estimates, after taking into account valuation effects. Weekly data suggests the RBI expended a further US$3 bln in reserves to cap the USDINR in the first week of July. The reserve balance remains healthy at US$308 bln for more such dollar selling to continue. Additionally, the moderation in fuel prices is likely to be supportive of the embattled INR from the BoP perspective. Although longer-term fundamental fragility lingers, we maintain our positive near-term view of the INR. The IDR has appreciated nicely against the USD on the back of some decisive fiscal and monetary tightening in recent months. While we would have liked a more aggressive BI, we think the central bank has established a decent amount of credibility and inflation prints are responding positively. June's inflation print came in well below expectations at 11.0% versus a consensus of 12.6%. Anecdotally, the central bank seems to have remained watchful in the FX market too, with official USDIDR-selling still likely at levels above 9170. We could see the lows of 9050 seen earlier this year in USDIDR.

MYR

Asian central banks are beginning to show a more hawkish stance in the face of rising inflation. BI, RBI and BSP have all hiked rather aggressively in recent weeks. One economy that has largely escaped higher inflation prints is Malaysia - helped by large subsidies in oil and foodstuff. But even for this oil exporting country, the high oil prices finally forced the government to adjust subsidies, raising fuel prices by an average of 40% in June. The June CPI print due out this Wednesday is likely to take a palpable jump as a result. Whether this will have an immediate impact on the BNM's policy views is of market's interest in our opinion. Our economist does not expect a rate hike when the BNM meets this Friday. The market is split down the middle. Political uncertainties on top of the rising inflation and waning confidence may keep the MYR on the defensive should the BNM stands pat. Elsewhere in Asia, other key data to watch this week are Singapore's June CPI out on Wednesday and Korea's Q2 GDP prints on Thursday. The latter is likely to show a marked deceleration from Q1, explaining the BoK's ostensible recent reluctance to hike rates for now. The BoK meets next on August 7.

COP

The COP was under severe pressure on Friday loosing around 2.7% against the USD to close at 1804. We think the move was not driven by a fundamental factor as the spot jumped on a large one-off outflow. While we see the COP as the most vulnerable currency in the Latam region to a sharp correction of commodities prices, we think the fundamentals have remained supportive of the COP should commodities stabilise. Although the unexpected drop of May industrial production (-4.29 y/y vs. 6.05% y/y Bloomberg survey) has created some discomfort, but we do not think it should be taken as a sufficient signal to change the path of monetary policy. Meanwhile, we think the central bank is likely to keep the hawkish tone as inflation readings remain elevated and considerably above its target. In this environment, high interest rate differential, which has been an important driver of COP appreciation in our view, will persist. In addition, the FDIs inflows into Colombia remain robust and we expect it to remain strong in 2008 given strong outlook for the petroleum and mining sectors, which are the main recipients of these inflows.

Technical FX

EURJPY bulls eye 169.67

EURUSD BULLISH Support defined at 1.5784. Trend remains bullish with initial resistance at 1.5948 ahead of key 1.6038 USDJPY BEARISH Sharp rebound from 103.78 has next resistance at 107.76. Initial support is at 105.98 GBPUSD BULLISH Defines support at 1.9907. Underlying trend remains bullish with the focus on 2.0097 and 2.0157. Initial resistance is at 1.9907 USDCHF BEARISH Key support defined at 1.0013, further gains would open key resistance at 1.0353. Initial support lies at 1.0136 AUDUSD BULLISH Bull trend focus on 0.9849 high - short-term support is at 0.9675 USDCAD BEARISH Recovers off 0.9976, initial resistance today is at 1.0081 EURCHF NEUTRAL Range-bound between 1.6252 and 1.5992 EURGBP BULLISH Key resistance remains 0.8035 with initial support at 0.7903. Major support lies at 0.7834 EURJPY NEUTRAL Rebound from 165.33 exposes 169.67 trend high. Initial support lies at 168.25
11:34  Mio: Продан баксойен
11:38  Мирра: AlexGrig 11:27 Привет! Во сколько сегодня Bank of America отчитывается?

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