Ключевые опционы, истекающие сегодня в Нью-Йорке
Евро/доллар: $1.5700, $1.5550
Доллар/иена: Y107.45, Y106.75/70, Y106.45, Y105.80
Евро/иена: Y168.50. Экзотический Y170.00 (KO)
Источник: ProFinance.Ru - Новости рынка Форекс
|23.07.08 10:51 | Доллар/иена открывает сессию в Европе новым скачком вверх||23.07.08 12:01 | Евро/доллар отметился новыми минимумами в начале торгов в Европе|
11:46 Mio: Kron 11:39
Чесслово, не вижу ни одного более или менее серьёзного нисходящего канала по еврофунту. На дневках - восходящая поддержка со второго мая. Такой симпатишный боковичок с 150-пипсовым диапазоном. Снизу покупаешь, сверху продаёшь. Красота ведь ))
Плюс основной тренд наверх. Выход из диапазона будет сильным. Учитывая фундамент и уменьшение разницы в % ставках, склоняюсь к покупкам кросса снизу, нежели к продажам сверху )
11:46 Joh: Замечательные опционы и люди, их печатающие)
11:47 AlexGrig: UBS
USD: Risk appetite consolidates JPY: Little to trigger a much stronger yen for now GBP: BoE minutes due CHF: Trade surplus at historic high AUD, NZD: More problems in NZ finance sector INR: Government survives confidence vote CNY: Politburo to discuss policies CZK: Some verbal intervention? BRL: Monetary policy decision today MXN: Fuelled by hawkish BANXICO EURUSD Breaks 1.5784 Support
USD: Risk appetite consolidates The dollar was firm overnight, trading in a 1.5769-1.5798 range against the EUR and in a tight 107.15-107.37 range against the JPY. Equity markets in Asia are firm on the back of a strong session on Wall Street as the earnings results so far remain satisfactory to investors, especially given current market conditions. A stronger dollar and meteorological developments have pushed oil down to a six-week low. Although inflationary pressures remain a concern, clear signs of slower global growth and a more optimistic outlook on containing inflation expectations have dampened market demand for inflation hedges such as commodities, while investors are also less averse to holding the greenback. The Federal Reserve and Treasury acted quickly to contain worries over financials as soon as problems with GSEs surfaced and risk aversion has not come close to levels seen during the most difficult periods of the subprime crisis. Yesterday Paulson said ensuring financial stability in the US "has to do with investors in the US and all over the world" and expected using taxpayer funds to help the institutions would be unnecessary. With market risks easing, it appears that hawkish Federal Reserve members have found greater confidence to direct the FOMC's focus back on inflation risks. Yesterday Fed's Plosser said rates should be raised sooner rather than later, and any move "will likely begin before either the labour market or financial markets have completely turned around". In addition to Plosser, the Fed's Fisher, Hoenig, Lacker and Stern have all struck a different note to Fed Chairman Bernanke, who has indicated increased concern over growth since the June FOMC meeting. We remain cautious in chasing the dollar higher at present, but if the earnings season concludes without incident, and key Eurozone data continue to deteriorate, EURUSD may turn decisively. Disappointment with tomorrow's Ifo release may open the way to further EURUSD downside. Ahead today, the Fed's Beige Book is due at 1800 GMT and is unlikely to show an improvement in key districts.
JPY: Little to trigger a much stronger yen for now The yen has underperformed the Swiss franc since late May despite both currencies sharing similar risk aversion properties. We would attribute the underperformance to the yen acting as a beta on general Asian currency moves, with most of Asia underperforming due to concerns over excessively high inflation. Competitor currencies such as the KRW have weakened significantly and this in turn puts pressure on the yen to weaken owing to a deterioration in its relative competitiveness. Oil has also helped to undermine the yen, not only due to the negative terms of trade effects, but also via its effect on relative policy expectations. Put simply, the markets have rightly judged that the ECB is much more likely to lift rates in response to high oil prices. In turn if oil prices were to fall sharply, the ECB is more likely to cut rates significantly as well as inflation pressures ease. Japan's economy remains extraordinarily stable and the policy changes of the BoJ stem primarily from watching the international environment. There are a couple of positive news stories floating around. Finance Minister Nukaga has been touring the Middle Eastern region to promote Japan as an investment destination for sovereign wealth funds. This makes sense as Middle Eastern investors have been over exposed to the US dollar and need to diversify. Also, we frequently get asked for updates as to whether the government will allow tax exemptions on un-repatriated profits for FY2009. Japan has Y17.2 tn in un-repatriated profits and we estimate around a third would head home in the event that they were tax-exempted. However, any further discussion on this front would likely take place at year-end in preparation for the next fiscal year, which begins in April. Keeping this in mind, we continue to target USDJPY at 105 over 1 and 3 months.
GBP: BoE minutes due The Bank of England minutes from the July meeting will be released today and we are looking for an 8-1 vote in favour of keeping rates on hold, with David Blanchflower the only member calling for a cut. We continue to expect the MPC to maintain a balancing act between upside downside risks to growth, and upside risks to CPI from an array of pipeline inflationary pressures, including rising inflation expectations and wage settlements. Last week's CPI release showed core inflation edging up to 1.6%y/y, and our economists note that although the MPC does not look at core measures, the stubbornness of this reading at present will prevent them from easing rates. Retail sales and advanced Q2 GDP will also be released this week and the market is expecting disappoint results from both releases. We are currently short EURGBP as a trade recommendation as passive shift in the ECB's current stance may force a correction in crowded positions such as EURGBP.
CHF: Trade surplus at historic high The trade balance for June reached a new record surplus of CHF2.412 bn, up from CHF1.874 bn in May. Nevertheless export growth continued to weaken, and in real terms fell by 3.5% on the year. While such conditions should weigh on price pressures up ahead, the most recent reading on producer prices, released on July 21, was released above expectations, supporting concerns over price stability to be at risk. Our economists continue to expect the SNB to tighten rates at their next policy meeting. Going forward, we expect risk sentiment to remain the franc's key driver for now, and our risk index has reached the lowest level in more than six weeks. Under such conditions we expect the franc to remain capped to the upside.
AUD, NZD: More problems in NZ finance sector Australian CPI for Q2 was released this morning and rose by 1.5% q/q, stronger than market expectations of 1.2% q/q and lifting the y/y pace to 4.5% from 4.2%. Fuel and financial services charges were the swing factors, and without these positive contributions, our economists estimate that headline inflation rose by 0.8% q/q in Q2. Of the core measures, the RBA's preferred trimmed measure rose by 1.2% q/q in Q1, unchanged from Q1. Our economists continue to see the RBA on hold this year but given strong inflationary pressures the onus is on activity data to slow enough to tame inflation. This suggests that dips in AUD will be shallow. In other developments, another finance company in New Zealand has had to freeze deposits. The company in question is the largest to date to run into troubles and comes ahead of the RBNZ meeting on Thursday. So far the RBNZ has played down the implications of problems in the finance sector on the broader economy, but the size of today's incident raises questions on that view. It does at the margin increase the possibility that the RBNZ cuts rates on Thursday, although we still place greater odds of a September start to the easing cycle.
INR: Government survives confidence vote India's ruling United Progressive Alliance coalition government led by the Congress Party survived a confidence vote last night after a gruelling debate which oscillated between the merits of the controversial nuclear cooperation deal with the US and charges of vote buying and corruption. The UPA garnered 275 votes, three more than what was required for a simple majority. Given the close nature of the vote, what was at stake and what we believe was a heavily long-USD market's positioning on the run-up to the vote, should see the INR doing well today. While this is not the motivation behind our tactical long-INR recommendation in an equal weighted basked with the IDR initiated in June, this should help our position. The UPA's win would clear the way for the US-India nuclear deal, which includes access to nuclear fuel and technology. According to an Indian business lobby estimates, the deal could unlock $40bn in investment for India over the next 15 years. Separately, we maintain our view that the INR will benefit from an increasingly hawkish central bank that is likely to raise the repo rates again at the July 29 policy meeting. The INR will gain some rates support and sentiment could also improve should WPI inflation numbers come in below consensus gain like it did last week. We target 42.00 for USDINR for now.
CNY: Politburo to discuss policies China's Politburo will be reviewing polices this week after the fact finding exercise, which include hearing from the various ministries and agencies, concluded last week. The loudest call for a slower appreciation came from the Ministry of Commerce - the same ministry who were against the de-pegging of the CNY in 2005, claiming then that exporters will be squeezed out given tight profit margins. But since the depeg, average industrial profit margins have actually widened on the back of reform and efficiency gains. While margins have since fallen off in recent months, current average industrial profit margin stands at a healthy 20%. Admittedly export growth has decelerated it remained robust, averaging 22.5% y/y in Q2, down slightly from the 26.7% growth in 2007. But importantly, the deceleration in export numbers is not a surprise given a) that narrowing the trade surplus is one of the objectives of the CNY appreciation and weak global demand. While small exporters and manufacturers are suffering, at the macro level exporters are still generally healthy. We think the key question for the likely pace of CNY appreciation going forward is inflation. If that eases to sub-6% - and our economist thinks this could happen toward the end of this year - the impetus to move to a significantly slower CNY appreciation is likely to intensify. We expect that close to year end. End 2008 target 6.60. The CNY aside, there are also talks of policies to support the domestic stock market, plausibly in the form of an easing of credit curbs. We do not see this happening while inflation remains well above the 4.8% (implicit) target and the yet unclear extent of second round pass through from the 15% hike in fuel prices in June to broader CPI.
CZK: Some verbal intervention? At the time of the last CNB meeting (June 26) uncertainty lingered over whether the persistence of CZK strength was to be interpreted as a permanent development or to be seen as temporary. It appears that the CNB governor's impression leans more towards CZK appreciation being seen as a permanent feature, hence his recent comments regarding the possible undershooting of the inflation target due to currency strength. The governor's comments - that currency strength may lead to lower interest rates next month - caused CZK to depreciate by about 2%. The currency has assisted in lowering overall inflation, and as we have seen about 70% of the year-to-date appreciation happening within less than two months, it is likely that this comment is intended to put some brakes on the pace of appreciation. Measures to limit the pace of appreciation by channelling flows outside the market have not been successful at slowing CZK. It is likely that after initial volatility, CZK may begin to regain some grounds. We have a negative bias on this currency and have recommended going short the CZK against PLN since April.
BRL: Monetary policy decision today The BRL gained around 0.15% against the USD on Tuesday closing at 1.58. The main event of the week is the COPOM rates announcement on Wednesday. The consensus call on the Bloomberg survey is for a 50 bps hike to 12.75%, but several analysts, including our economists, are forecasting a 75 bps move. Not surprisingly, this high level of uncertainty is well captured at the front-end of the curve: we estimate that it is pricing in roughly equal chances of a 50 bps or 75bps move. We think that a 75 bps hike will continue to provide support to the BRL as it would signal the continuation of the attractive carry. In this scenario, we see the USDBRL moving towards 1.55 levels in the short term. On the other hand, if the COPOM hikes by 50 bps we could see some correction towards 1.60-1.625 region on a knee jerk, although for the medium-term, we think this would not change the BRL appreciation bias.
MXN: Fuelled by hawkish BANXICO The MXN appreciated strongly on Tuesday gaining around 0.9% against the USD to close at 10.03. In the last few days, following the BANXICO 25 bps hike last Friday, the MXN has been rallying strongly breaking important technical levels. We think the BANXICO hawkish stance has been the main driver of the positive MXN performance. The perspective of additional monetary tightening - the local yield curve is pricing in almost 2 additional hikes of 25 bps in the next 6 months - is maintaining the MXN carry/vol ratio at very attractive levels which we think will continue to support the MXN. In our view, the momentum is strong and we could see the USDMXN testing the 10 support level in the next few days.
EURUSD Breaks 1.5784 Support EURUSD BULLISH Likely to remain heavy near-term following break of 1.5784 with resistance at 1.5945. The next key support lies at 1.5612 USDJPY BEARISH Strong bounce off 106.06 opens up scope for test of 107.76 resistance GBPUSD BULLISH Violation of 1.9904 support exposes 1.9841 Fibonacci level. Resistance is at 2.0077. USDCHF BEARISH Support defined at 1.0138 with the focus on the key short-term resistance at 1.0353 AUDUSD BULLISH Support at 0.9675 coming under pressure, a break would open 0.9619 and 0.9565 USDCAD BEARISH Recovery from 0.9971 support has tough resistance at 1.0137 Fibonacci retracement. Initial support lies at 0.9993 EURCHF NEUTRAL Move above 1.6252 shifts focus to 1.6379 old trend high. Support at 1.6156 EURGBP BULLISH Key resistance remains 0.8035 with initial support at 0.7903. Major support lies at 0.7834 EURJPY NEUTRAL Focus is on the key 170.00 psychological level. Trend is up with support at 168.25
11:49 Большой_адронный_коллайдер: AlexGrig 11:45
да пускай дальше падает, но мне че то сыкотно )
11:51 massimo: Ребят а что по долларйене сегодня?
11:53 Joh: Большой_адронный_коллайдер 11:49 Вчера я тоже очканул... А он еще на 120 пипсов ))) Я не утверждаю, что сегодня будет так же, но все же.
11:53 Spas: А это разве показатель!?
11:53 Kapusta: Kron 11:29Игрорь,а я уж начет фф стала сомневаться.что пробьет 2.06.понимаешь,фунт.конечно.на сильной поддержке и диверит,но и у франка есть возможность для дивера.Хочу взять все-таки хоть половину на фф.Не жадничать.Личка
11:59 AlexGrig: Большой_адронный_коллайдер 11:49
Боя-ц-ц-ц-а нэ надо :)
12:01 news_robot: Господа, в разделе Валютный рынок появился новый комментарий
12:02 Тантакля: ну что, евра на второй приступ пошла или мне кажется? =)
12:03 Joh: Kapusta 11:53 80 % - вероятность, что Ваши сомнения преждевременны)
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