09:58  LuckyStrike: 1

09:59  Bad Balance: Всем привет, профитов. Куда поезд? Я на юг билеты купил, надеюсь не ошибся))))))))))))))

10:00  Storm: привет! не ломай масть, идем на север......

10:01  Flame: 09:59 Bad Balance: Привет Все хотят на юг )))

10:02  Bad Balance: Storm Дата 03.03.10 12:00
привет! не ломай масть, идем на север......

У меня на севере отложенники на продажу, если сработают - пипец евробаксу, ниже паритета падёт)))))))))))))))

10:03  suny:
Рыбак. привет дружище.
08:51 suny привет дружище. все что связано с ростом цен на недвижимость это прямая поддержка курсу национальной валюты, фунт от этого только выиграет.
===========================
А почему то после этой инфы кабель пошёл вниз И я его жду где то примерно 1.4950. У меня немного продано кабеля.
Поверь мне, я не гадаю. Я перед этим изучил макроэкономику.

10:04  Storm: ты про ева на баксе? тодь да.... на юг... пляж, пиво, девочки)))

10:06  LuckyStrike: в Жермании розница накрылась тазом. Вперед, в Подвал )))))

10:06  Bad Balance: По Германии какие новости, кто в курсе?

10:08  Bad Balance: Lucky понял. Вали евру набок, ломай ему ногу

10:08  Flame: 10:06 LuckyStrike: В Подвал

10:10  LuckyStrike: 10:08 Bad Balance: по моему хотят сделать наибахтунг ....

10:14  AlexGrig: UBS:

Commodity currencies have largely been spared the fiscal woes that have dogged the euro and pound this year. As resource prices stabilise or pick up, government finances in the exporter economies will continue to improve, attracting flows which have left less promising economies. In the latest UBS FX Talking Points, we look at the commodity currencies to see how they could behave differently going forward.

Positioning is key for the commodity currencies as they have been among the favorite trades for investors. For NOK, positioning has come down sharply, which can only be healthy for the currency in the long run. At its peak NOK longs (12m) surpassed 400% and looked unsustainable but the subsequent unwind has been orderly. NOK is still one of our favoured trades for 2010 but we would wait for short-term risks to clear, such as the CPI release and Norges Bank decision, before re-entering structural longs. In the long run, a health-check is needed and the challenge will be for the country to begin diversifying its export exposure away from Europe.

CAD also remains strong with regards to positioning, even though out of the four main commodity currencies, its commodity export share is by far the lowest.. The Canadian manufacturing sector has traditionally been very strong but overexposure to the US remains the crucial problem. The Canadian labour market's (full-time jobs) fortunes have also ebbed and flowed with the US auto industry throughout the recession. That said, the pick-up in demand in the US has helped Canada recover, though the market continues to closely watch unemployment and GDP numbers to gauge the strength of the economic recovery. The BoC sounded more hawkish in its latest assessment as it dropped wording of downside inflation risks, which helped the CAD, but we think the BoC will also be watching the US recovery for signs of further normalization in the Canadian economy. Investors continue to favor the Canadian dollar and while rhetoric on Canadian dollar strength is nowhere near levels heard late last year, parity may yet prove too hard to stomach in the near future.

G10 FX

USD: Dollar drifts lower

The dollar weakened slightly during the Asia session as press supports suggested that Greece is on the verge of announcing additional austerity measures. Equities were marginally ahead while EURUSD traded 1.3590-1.3655 and USDJPY 88.48-89.02.

Kansas City Fed President Hoenig said a zero rate is "non-sustainable" and that low rates for an extended period could cause problems later. His comments are not surprising as he was the lone dissenter at the January FOMC meeting. Hoenig said that while it would be difficult for the Fed to sell assets this year, the Fed must be prepared to hike policy rates while the jobless rate is still high. He also said the Fed would not monetize Treasury debt.

Non-manufacturing ISM and the Fed's Beige Book are due.

EUR: New austerity measures could be introduced soon

The Greek Prime Minister said the cabinet will take decisions on the economy on Wednesday. He did not list specifics, though press reports suggest higher taxes could be part of the additional austerity measures. The Prime Minister said Greece needs the support of its EU partners, though a German coalition member was quoted as saying that Greece would need to help itself. The new austerity measures, should they be announced, will likely increase investor focus on the meeting between German Chancellor Merkel and PM Papandreou on March 5.

Press reports suggested the ECB would discuss lending covered bonds as part of its upcoming policy decision. The ECB initiated the covered bond purchase program in May 2009 and as of Jan. 29, 2010, the total nominal value of all covered bond purchases was about EUR33.4 bn. The target amount is EUR60 bn and the purchases are expected to be completed by the end of June. The press reports also noted that purchases could continue even if the ECB decides to lend out covered bonds.

Eurozone CPI was 0.9% annualized, as expected. PPI was slightly higher at 0.7% m/m and -1.0% y/y.

We maintain our 3-month EURUSD forecast at 1.30.

AUD: Q4 q/q GDP in line

As expected by UBS and by consensus, Q4 GDP growth accelerated to +0.9% q/q (prev. +0.3%). However, the annualized figure was stronger than expected at +2.7% y/y (cons. 2.4%, prev. 0.9%). Our economists note that the key driver behind the accelerated growth was again public spending, but in contrast to the prior two quarters, stronger private sector activity was also evident.

Our economists continue to look for strong growth from mid-2010 across all sectors of the economy, accompanied by rising bond yields and rising interest rates.

CAD: BoC sounds more hawkish

The BoC left the policy rate unchanged but dropped wording in the accompanying statement that inflation risks are tilted downward and also dropped the reference to having flexibility at low rates.

The central bank reiterated that the stronger Canadian dollar and weak US demand are still detrimental for growth but the shift in language helped support the CAD despite no change on the policy rate.

FX Technicals

EURUSD current focus on 1.3692 high

EURUSD BEARISH Current focus is on resistance at 1.3692 ahead of 1.3788 but the pair remains heavy below the 1.3839 high. Support lies at the 1.3436 low.

USDJPY BEARISH Violation of 88.56 opens the 88.25 (61.8% retrace) Fibonacci level ahead of the 87.37 low. Near-term resistance is at 89.50.

GBPUSD BEARISH Present focus is on initial resistance at 1.5209 ahead of 1.5317 but remains vulnerable below the 1.5575 high. Support is at the 1.4784 low.

USDCHF BULLISH Focus is on 1.0695 ahead of 1.0647 but the pair remains constructive above the 1.0609 low. Resistance lies at the 1.0899 high.

AUDUSD BEARISH While resistance at the 0.9071 high holds, expect a decline to 0.8936 ahead of the 0.8863/01 support range.

USDCAD NEUTRAL Focus is on 1.0303 ahead of the 1.0207 key low. Resistance lies at 1.0443 ahead of 1.0574.

EURCHF BEARISH Price action consolidating but focus remains downwards at the 1.4618 low. Key resistance lies at the 1.4702 high.

EURGBP BULLISH Current focus is on 0.9018 but while support at the 0.8941 (38.2% retrace) Fibonacci level holds, expect a bounce to the 0.9149 high.

EURJPY BEARISH The cross remains heavy below the 122.61 high; while the level holds, expect a drop to the 119.66 low. Near-term resistance is at 121.90

10:15  Rolling: Для любителей Тирольских напевов
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oUMwu_gXK7Q
10:06 LuckyStrike У них в Европе весь прошлый год розница не блистала. Но евра упорно шла вверх. Дело не в нынешних данных. Просто пришло ее время падать (решили так) - значит падать.

10:16  Rolling: Для любителей Тирольских напевов
http://www.youtube. com/watch?v=oUMwu_gXK7Q

10:17  Inferno: среда пришла - неделя прошла)

10:17  Inferno: Доброе утро, дамы и господа!
Хорошего дня!

10:18  Bad Balance: Inferno привет

10:19  LuckyStrike: 10:15 Rolling: Да и пусть падает ))) хоть с новостями хоть без ))

10:22  Paha: почему вчера под самый вечер евра перестала реагировать на сипи? индекс.. пошёл вниз... а евра нет.. до этого резко реагировала а
индекс был в плюс 0.4 уйдёт на 0.2 она на 50 пунктов вниз
а потом перестала он ушёл снова на 0.4 она ускакала вверх а когда он даж в минус ушёл ну какиез то сраных 2-3 пипса вниз а сипи на 1 пунк ввер она на 10 сразу.. я иза этого и влип

10:24  Kapusta: Доброе утро!Даёшь мажорики до ставок ниже.а после ставок-выше!

10:26  AlexGrig: 10:22 Paha :) ничто не вечно под луной :)

10:27  ЛезгиноХохол: Всем привет.
Тихонько сижу втихоньком логе по тихонькому оззи. Жду пробоя вверх.
Просмотрел свою историю. Самые приятные воспоминания связаны с оззи. Всегда спокойно и неторопливо давал мне профит.

10:27  LuckyStrike: Фунтятий как всегда чампион )))) В ПОДВАЛ ...

10:27  Bad Balance: Kapusta Дата 03.03.10 12:24
Доброе утро!Даёшь мажорики до ставок ниже.а после ставок-выше!

Всё может быть. Так-то добрым разводняком попахивает. Вопрос кто попадёт - быки или мишки

10:27  Rolling: 10:19 LuckyStrike
Западная Европа - это грузоперевозки своей продукции в разные части света. Фрахт (стоимость морских грузоперевозок) рухнул за последнии три месяца чуть ли не в два раза. С высокой еврой трудно продавать свой товар.

10:30  ЛезгиноХохол: Запомни закон форекса: Стоит трейдеру обнаружить закономерность в поведении валюты, (не важно, техника, реакция на фундамент, лунные циклы, приливы отливы) как она сразу же меняется.

10:31  IceBerg: Всем доброго утра.

10:31  Kapusta: 10:27 Bad Balance: да это я так размечталася.Я вниз не решусь на таком баксоидексе.Правда.вчера михеев грит-и не мечтайте.пока амеры не наберутся(у них опять с деньгами неважно,все прокушали),они баксу падать не дадут.А я думаю-как это не дадут на такой картинке кто же бакс покупать будет?Я картинкам верить привыкла.

10:31  ЛезгиноХохол: 10:22 Paha: Запомни закон форекса: Стоит трейдеру обнаружить закономерность в поведении валюты, (не важно, техника, реакция на фундамент, лунные циклы, приливы отливы) как она сразу же меняется.

10:32  news_robot: Господа, в разделе Валютный рынок появился новый комментарий

10:32  Kapusta: 10:31 IceBerg: доброго)

10:33  Rolling: 10:31 Kapusta
Таня, картинки разные бывают.)))

10:37  Bad Balance: Половина продаж фикс на всякий